Project Prophesy: Reliable performance forecasts for the future

Renewable energies are becoming increasingly important – and so are performance forecasts for photovoltaic and wind power plants. Grid operators, in particular, depend on the most accurate predictions possible in order to plan and trade in electricity from renewable energies.


Kevin Winter, Jens Schreiber, Prof. Dr. Bernhard Sick, Dr. Malte Siefert, Ruben Jubeh und Dr. Jan Dobschinski. (from left to right)


When can we feed in how much renewable energy?

‘Green electricity’ does not exist everywhere in equal parts – in Germany, for example, the north-south divide is obvious: in the north there are considerably more renewable energy plants than in the south, which is why it is of great importance to know exactly when and how much electricity is being generated from them. This energy can then be consumed locally or resold on the electricity exchange. enercast has made it its task to optimize the forecasts for renewable energies and to deliver a high forecasting quality.


Focus of the Prophesy research project

Together with two partners, the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology (IEE) and the University of Kassel, enercast’s development team is currently conducting research in ‘Project Prophesy’. The focus is on forecasting services for renewable energies in the future using weather models. “This is important, for example, in the field of electromobility” explains Ruben Jubeh, a member of the enercast research team.


Simulation of error times for the future

The forecasting uncertainty of wind and solar energy in power supply systems also plays a major role. Project Prophesy simulates which feed-in, forecasting and forecasting error values are to be expected from photovoltaic and wind power plants. For the first time, the researchers also take into account the development of errors over future periods, simulate them and finally analyse them.


‘Time machine’ for optimized predictions

Jubeh clarifies:” We are developing a time machine, so to speak, which technically simulates the feed-in, taking into account spatial and temporal weather dependencies and thus forecasts performance for renewable energies. In this way we can, for example. make qualititative statements about what renewable electricity production will look like in the grid next year.” Project Prophesy is supported by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy with a budget of more than one million euros.