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Extrapolation and forecast
Once per 15 minutes, the extrapolation delivers reliable statements, concerning the current feed-in, into distribution- and transmission grids. Consequently it becomes easier to follow the schedule and the costs for balance energy are minimized. The current feed-in is calculated from recently measured power data, from the enercast’s German-wide monitoring network, and from an extrapolation method, developed by the Fraunhofer IWES. The latter accesses the current EEG plant- and feed-in data for photovoltaic plants.
The extrapolation can be optimized because of the consideration of satellite-based radiation data, which is provided by EUMETSAT. Consequentially, feed-in quantities can also be calculated for plants that do not dispose over measurement technology.
Forecast of the expected feed-in
Not merely the current feed-in is determined by enercast. Enercast also generates a reliable forecast for the feed-in up to 72h in the future. This is based on weather forecast data of the German weather service, which is updated multiple times per day. The solar electricity feed-in is calculated with a method which was developed by the Fraunhofer IWES— in the process, not only the radiation is considered, but also further parameters, such as temperature and snow coverage.
For the short-term forecast, recently measured power data and satellite radiation data can be included. This can significantly increase the quality of the forecast for short time frames. If the grid operator wants to conduct an ensemble extrapolation or –forecast, or if he requires forecasts over longer periods of time, enercast can also be operated with other weather forecast data.